Chicago Green Festival

We visited Chicago Green Festival in Navy Pier this Saturday (May 22nd).

It was pretty cool and neat. We observed the following:

First, a lot of emphasize by small building contractors in the heating and cooling space. Major focus is around PV but Solar Thermal was there too for one or two vendors.

Second, it was pretty much vendor agnostic or we may say manufacturer agnostic.

 

 

Here is a picture of a solar thermal.

Then moving on, we observed some financial institutions like Green Choice Bank.

We did not see much of wind power though. There was only one small device with a vertical shaft with helical fan model.

 

We saw a lot of Green/Clean product features.

Overall, it was very enjoyable and enlightening.

Solar Industry Trends - Part 2 - Solar Thermals

So, lets talk about the major energy challenge that human civilization faced all the time -- distribution and storage for future usage.

PVs fall a little short on the storage side -- the power generated has to be stored in some batteries or has to be connected to a national grid so that it can be supplied to other customers. But that involves a lot of financial transactions/rules and also network security and maintenance.

Solar Thermal is an interesting concept started during the first energy crisis around 60s and 70s when inventors decided to generate heat using solar power (kind of Archimedes principle of using parabolic mirrors to heat) and then convert that heat energy into electrical energy.

In the simplest solar thermal application, a discrete solar collector gathers solar radiation to heat air or water for domestic, commercial or industrial use. The solar panel is usually a flat plate collector that consists of a metal box with a glass or plastic cover and a black absorber plate at the bottom.

Absorber plates are usually painted with selective coatings that absorb and retain heat better than ordinary black paint. They are normally made of metal, typically copper or aluminium, because it is a good conductor of heat. Copper is more expensive, but it is a better conductor and is less prone to corrosion than aluminium. The sides and bottom of the collector are usually insulated to minimize heat loss.

In locations with average available solar energy, flat plate collectors are sized at approximately 0.5 to 1 square foot per gallon of daily hot water use. Evacuated tube collectors have absorber plates that are metal strips running down the center of each tube.

Convective heat losses are reduced by virtue of the vacuum in the tube. For swimming pool heating, plastic or rubber are used to make low-temperature absorber plates.

It is someway cheaper than PV, and generation cost comes closer to coal. Typical designs include Parabolic Trough, Solar Tower or a Stirling Engine (yup, again referring to Zemansky - thermodynamic devices).

The challenge that Solar Thermal faces is the initial capital spending - PVs are way cheaper to install and generate a much much faster break-even.

So, who are the big players? Well, we can certainly name eSolar, Ausra, Sterling Energy Systems, Infinia, SolarReserve, Solel (owned by Siemens), BrightSource etc.

And the market in terms of numbers/growth?

According to Siemens the CSP market is expected to be worth more than €20 billion ($27 billion) by 2020. The US has 493 MW of installed capacity forecasted by the close of 2010, and over 50 projects in the pipeline that are expected to demand as much as US$80 billion of investment over the next decade.

Solar Industry Trends - Part 1 - PVs

Well, its summer, is not it? Ready to get a suntan, right? No, we do not think we can yet convert ourselves into PVs/Thin Films to get electricity/energy.

 

But what is this solar power all about?

One liner: It is about converting sunlight into consumable energy.

August Mouchot was the first (recorded) person to develop a system that uses solar power. He developed a simple heater that trapped the heat from the Sun that boiled water. And that was 150 years ago.

 

So, what are the forms? It comes in two versions - first photovoltaics (yes, based on this Albert Einstein got his Nobel Prize) which includes roof-top panels and thin-film descendants. Second - solar thermal which acts essentially as a viable alternative to coal-burning power plants.

Today, lets look into PVs as they look pretty cool, right? shining little mirrors.

 

How is the market then?

Well, to be precise - there are two end consumers - households (retail) and corporates/energy companies (wholesale).

Why PV is interesting - simple answer - unitariness of energy generation. It is like childrens' building blocks and a much cheaper installation compared to other non traditional sources.

What are the financial benefits?

Carbon credit, much less distribution cost, cheaper maintenance cost.

Concern:

Conservativeness of market, astheticness of building rooftops, break even period/NPV realization period, unclear economics, not stable payback-has quite a few variables, and lastly country specific political doctrines.

Conservative Payback estimate for customers:

Crystalline silicon PV systems presently have energy pay-back times of 1.5-2 years for South-European locations and 2.7-3.5 years for Middle-European locations. The U.S. is less than 1.5 years currently. The accounting life estimate for solar panels is 20 years typically, but they last longer than that, many are guaranteed for at least 20 years, with no definite end due to time. This is with old technology.

The following is from DOE/GO-102004-1847 report.

Market:

The Solar PV cell production in the US has seen a steady increase in volume over the last five years. The US PV cell production has grown from 100 MW in 2001 to reach over 300 MW by 2008 at a CAGR of 15%. The cell production companies in the US are focusing on the next wave of solar PV technologies. Currently, the US accounts for approximately two thirds of global thin-film production.

At present, solar is not in grid parity with traditionals. So, there lies the scope at distribution end.
It is worh to observe the following "3 Bullet points".

1. Manufacturing -- traditional PVs are bulky. A new market is emerging about thin film wafer based semiconductor based power generators which are light and cheaper.Drawbacks - less electrical power. Thats another scope. And scope for both ends as it will most likely not be a monopoly by either.
2. Japan and Germany - early adopters.
3. Proof is in numbers - lets consider one of the market leaders - First Solar. But, to be cautious, this is still not a market indicator rather one company. Success of one organization does not predict success of everyone.

 What about the installers, service providers?

Teaming up with a reliable local solar installer is the single most important strategy for solar success. Ask local solar companies if they have NABCEP-certified installers. The North American Board of Certified Energy Practitioners (NABCEP) certifies both SWH and PV installers. Go to http://www.nabcep.org/ to find certified installers in your area.

 

• http://www.findsolar.com/ is a National data- base of solar Professionals sponsored by the American Solar Energy Society.
• The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) is a national trade association for the solar industry. Check with the local members. http://www.seia.org/.

OK, thats all for now. Need to get ready for the daily grind..

See ya.